$91 Oil and the AI Verdict
Iran escalates. Alphabet reports Wednesday. This week decides the second half of the year.
• Iran struck a Kuwait oil facility
• Iran intercepted 4 vessels in the Strait of Hormuz
• US strikes expanded across 6 Gulf countries
• A 3rd US service member was killed
• The ceasefire has effectively collapsed
The Strait of Hormuz handles 20% of the world’s daily oil supply. Every escalation there is an inflation event. Markets are watching every headline.
📅 THE WEEK THAT MATTERS
One event defines this week:
Wednesday July 23 — Alphabet and Tesla report after the close.
Alphabet’s numbers will answer the question markets have been asking for three weeks: is AI investment accelerating or stalling? Their cloud growth and capital spending guidance will set the tone for tech for the rest of the summer.
Tesla reports the same night.
Everything else this week is background noise.
BOTTOM LINE
Oil is the immediate risk. Alphabet is the opportunity.
If Iran de-escalates and Alphabet confirms AI demand is real — last week’s selloff looks like a buying opportunity. If both go wrong — the picture changes fast.
Next reading: Monday July 28.
— Ronnie Buder