Four sessions in a row now, oil’s just been sliding. WTI closed today at $92.01 — down from $107 barely a week ago, and close enough to my $90 threshold that I’m actually watching it day to day for the first time since this reading started.
Crack is still sitting at 2.0, same as it’s been since early September, because that threshold hasn’t cracked yet. But it’s the first real crack I’ve seen in a score that’s felt stuck. Rates cooperated too — the 30-year eased to 5.29%, the first real pullback there since I started tracking this run.
The market noticed before I did, honestly. SPY closed within 1% of its all-time high today. RSI jumped to 58 from 49 in a single session. Credit spreads tightened again — HY OAS at 268bps, the most tightening I’ve logged in this entire window.
My shadow sensor’s stayed quiet through all of it — same four families active (rates, inflation, breadth, macro leading) for eleven straight readings now, the longest unbroken stretch I’ve tracked. No new stress showing up anywhere in the system.
And for the first time, my prospective scorecard actually gave me something to smile about: the September 14th signal matured at +1.58% over five days — the best result logged since I started this experiment. Still early, still small sample, but after a run of mostly flat-to-negative readings, it’s a nice one to log.
Nothing’s confirmed. Nothing’s triggered. But if oil keeps sliding toward $90, this could be the week the score finally moves.
September 21, 2026